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Cannes 2025 Palme d’Or Contenders, Ranked: Who Will Win?

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Updated, May 21: The raves are in for dissident Iranian director Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident,” with the asylum filmmaker in attendance at Cannes for Wednesday’s press convention and Tuesday evening’s premiere. The highly effective drama — much less reflexive than Panahi’s current movies like “No Bears” or “Taxi” through which the director, by advantage of his outsider and previously incarcerated standing in Iran, is pressured to grow to be a personality himself — has a few of the greatest opinions out on the Screen International jury grid. It follows an ever-growing group of Iranians who kidnap and contemplate killing their former captor underneath the regime. In an affecting transfer, Panahi exhibits girls with out hijab, reminiscent of a marriage photographer roped into being part of the person’s captivity, to replicate the shifts in his native nation’s society post-Woman, Life, Freedom motion.

Panahi spoke overtly through the press convention and in a Variety interview about how his expertise in jail underneath interrogation and torture-like techniques impressed this politically rousing film. It’s powerful and darkish but additionally options loads of humor, and there’s seemingly nobody at Cannes who doesn’t assume it’s a second-week Palme frontrunner. Panahi beforehand received the Camera d’Or for his 1995 debut “The White Balloon” and the Best Screenplay prize in competitors for “3 Faces” in 2018.

“It Was Just an Accident,” because it’s titled in English, is a gross sales title at the moment searching for U.S. distribution. I’ve spoken to a couple consumers who liked the film. Based on early opinions, including IndieWire’s rave, somebody will wish to snap this one up shortly earlier than Saturday’s awards ceremony.

Carla Simón’s autobiographical “Romería” out of Spain, about an aspiring filmmaker who ventures into studying about her household historical past and particularly her late father, who died of AIDS within the early Nineteen Nineties when she was younger, additionally debuted Wednesday to supportive opinions. The very good cinematography from Hélène Louvart, who additionally shot Scarlett Johansson’s Un Certain Regard premiere “Eleanor the Great” however is an everyday at Cannes along with her work (“La Chimera,” “Motel Destino”), deserves consideration from the jury.

Premiering right this moment in Cannes are “The History of Sound” and “Sentimental Value,” which screened for reviewers earlier on Saturday and could possibly be up for prizes themselves. Reviews, which simply broke, for “The History of Sound” are blended, although Paul Mescal could possibly be a Cannes Best Actor contender for his transferring portrayal of a music scholar enamored with Josh O’Connor. They go on the street collectively, falling in love and gathering music after bonding as fellow Boston Conservatory college students. MUBI has distribution rights and can launch the queer World War I-adjacent romance later within the yr. It will little question make the rounds at regional fall festivals on the way in which to an Oscar marketing campaign. Oliver Hermanus’ movie doesn’t really feel like a Palme winner, although. It’s not vastly giving when it comes to feelings, that are what the juries go for.

We’ll preserve updating the beneath rating.

Earlier, May 20: We are precisely per week into the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, and on a day of extreme, soaking rain hailing down upon the Croisette. In different phrases, best moviegoing climate.

At this level, we’ve seen 13 competitors titles, with Julia Ducournau’s divisive epidemic-horror-meets-grief-drama “Alpha” debuting Monday evening to wildly blended reactions (together with a pan from IndieWire’s own critic and established Ducournau fan David Ehrlich). Ducournau received the Palme in 2021 for “Titane” and is unlikely to repeat this yr; Neon releases the AIDS-allegorical home drama later in 2025.

Tuesday evening brings the premiere of asylum filmmaker Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident” out of Iran, with the dissident director set to seem in individual for a press convention on Wednesday. Could this movie observe the sample of one other Iranian director, Mohammad Rasoulof, who received a prize final yr for eventual Oscar nominee “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”?

Aubry Dullin, Richard Linklater, Zoey Deutch and Guillaume Marbeck pose during the 'Nouvelle Vague' photocall at Cannes
Aubry Dullin, Richard Linklater, Zoey Deutch and Guillaume Marbeck pose through the ‘Nouvelle Vague’ photocall at CannesGetty Images

Yet to return are Oliver Hermanus’ “The History of Sound,” Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” Saeed Roustaee’s “Woman and Child,” Bi Gan’s “Resurrection,” Carla Simón’s “Romeria,” the Dardennes’ “Young Mothers,” and Kelly Richardt’s “The Mastermind.” That movie would be the final to premiere in competitors, as Cannes awaits the arrival of Josh O’Connor, who’s at the moment in manufacturing duties within the United States on Steven Spielberg’s upcoming sci-fi movie. That meant he needed to miss the “History of Sound” press junket on Tuesday (keep tuned for IndieWire’s protection), together with his co-star Paul Mescal holding courtroom.

So far, there isn’t a clear, universally praised standout, although early premieres “Sound of Falling” from Mascha Schilinski and “Two Prosecutors” from Sergei Loznitsa are holding excessive on the Screen International critics’ jury grid. There was plenty of reward, too, for Oliver Laxe’s powerful sit “Sirat,” a gross sales title that follows a father and his small son into the Moroccan desert to seek out his lacking daughter amid drug-fueled raves that cross “Mad Max” with Burning Man.

CANNES, FRANCE - MAY 20: Julia Ducournau poses during the
Julia Ducournau poses through the ‘Alpha’ photocall on the 78th annual Cannes Film FestivalGetty Images

Richard Linklater’s black-and-white French New Wave love letter “Nouvelle Vague” was additionally adored on the bottom, interesting to the European and American cinephile set with its beautiful cinematography and who’s-who of the Parisian filmmaking scene in 1959. It’s extra a New Wave hangout film than a strict chronicle of the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless,” although it peels again the curtain on how Godard (Guillaume Marbeck) put collectively his groundbreaking film with stars Jean Seberg (Zoey Deutch, who nails Seberg’s wobbly French accent) and Jean-Paul Belmondo (Aubry Dullin, a lifeless ringer for the late French star).

Kleber Mendonça Filho’s energetic, practically three-hour epic “The Secret Agent,” set in Seventies Brazil and following Wagner Moura as a tech skilled on the run through the nation’s carnival week, additionally picked up nice opinions. I may see Moura (“Narcos,” “Civil War”), talking his native Portuguese all through this energetically directed political thriller, selecting up the Best Actor prize from Juliette Binoche’s jury — which incorporates actors like Jeremy Strong and Halle Berry, who certainly responded to the most effective big-screen efficiency showcase of Moura’s profession.

Still splitting everybody on the bottom are Ari Aster’s “Eddington” and Lynne Ramsay’s “Die, My Love,” which scored the most important sale of the competition to this point, $23 million at MUBI with eyes on an Oscar campaign for Jennifer Lawrence, a Cannes Best Actress contender for her character’s postpartum despair spiral. It’s Aster’s first Cannes, and European audiences took extra to his COVID-era Western satire than some Americans. Scottish auteur Ramsay, in the meantime, received Best Screenplay in 2017 for “You Were Never Really Here” and is an everyday at Cannes regardless of being much less common when it comes to her output (“Die My Love” is her first movie since that yr).

CANNES, FRANCE - MAY 19: Richard Ayoade, Riz Ahmed, Rupert Friend, Wes Anderson and Benedict Cumberbatch pose during
Richard Ayoade, Riz Ahmed, Rupert Friend, Wes Anderson, and Benedict Cumberbatch pose throughout ‘The Phoenician Scheme’ photocall on the 78th annual Cannes Film FestivalGetty Images

Getting so-so opinions was Wes Anderson’s “The Phoenician Scheme,” an espionage comedy starring Benicio del Toro and breakout Mia Threapleton, who acquired emotional through the standing ovation on Sunday evening. The painterly, tweezer-precise compositions from manufacturing designer Adam Stockhausen and cinematographer Bruno Delbonnel are all on vivid show right here, however the narrative leaves one thing to be desired, and indicators it may be time for Anderson to shake up his schtick.

Less buzzy however selecting up reward, Chie Hayakawa’s Nineteen Eighties-set Tokyo coming-of-age drama “Renoir” and Egyptian movie trade political satire “Eagles of the Republic,” from 2022 Best Screenplay winner Tarik Saleh (“Boy from Heaven”), additionally make a bid for the Palme. Hayakawa received the Camera d’Or out of 2022’s Un Certain Regard for “Plan 75,” making “Renoir” her competitors debut. Hafsia Herzi’s French-Algerian coming-out chronicle “The Little Sister” was a day 4 premiere that might choose up a lower-end jury prize and even Best Actress notices for breakout Nadia Melliti, who acquired a pleasant interview unfold from Vulture’s Rachel Handler.

Based on conversations with distributors, executives, critics, and trade attendees, I’ve ranked beneath which movies are probably to this point to attain the Palme d’Or. Past winners like “Anora” have popped through the second week, so don’t rule out any of the remaining movies. There’s nonetheless a lot to see.

1. “It Was Just an Accident”
2. “Sound of Falling”
3. “Nouvelle Vague”
4. “The Secret Agent”
5. “Sirat”
6. “Two Prosecutors”
7. “Romeria”
8. “Eddington”
9. “Die My Love”
10. “Renoir”
11. “The History of Sound”
12. “Eagles of the Republic”
13. “The Little Sister”
14. “Dossier 137”
15. “The Phoenician Scheme”
16. “Alpha”

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